Tuesday, June 1, 2010

What to make of recent data

In my post on my Konda work, I had noted that the first preliminary indicators from May were pointing to a slowdown in the pace of recovery. The same trend can be seen in the CNBC-e consumer sentiment surveys, at least until you look at the details:
The overall index fell by 0.5 points mom in May, but the breakdown between the present and the future is noteworthy: While the expectations for the upcoming period fell by 3.1 points, the index on actual consumption actually rose by 2.5 points. Moreover, consumer sentiment, a sentiment measuring appetite for durables is up by 3.7 points. So the recent slowdown reflects concerns about the future, more than anything else. 

All in all, It is also important to note that consumption level has not slowed down as of yet, and maybe there isn't as much as a gap between Konda and official data as I was thinking before...

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