This post already appeared in the Hurriyet Daily News on May 30; Europe Economonitor is just republishing it, but I just wanted to cross-link for the readers who might have missed it the first time around...
BTW, it seems I was not the only one who noticed the dichotomy between Turkey and South Africa. Here's from Barcap's most recent Emerging Markets Quarterly:
As a tail risk trade in EMEA, for a scenario of prolonged risk aversion, we recommend long TRY/short ZAR FX. This offers positive potential carry with relatively more favorable FX technicals (eg, large local FX deposits) in Turkey. We also recommend overweighting Turkey versus South Africa in our Global EM credit portfolio.
Speaking of people writing on the same topic as your friendly neighborhood economist, I recently read an article in Finansbank's investment site Finansonline on the effect of EURUSD- but rather than look at the impact on trade, they are discussing the effect on Turkish companies' balance sheets, so it is kind of a nice complement to my short post on that topic.
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