Tuesday, June 8, 2010

I don't like to say I told you...

....but I did tell you. To quote directly from the column:
I can see my colleagues making fun of this prescription when the Central Bank’s bi-monthly survey registers a sharp drop in inflation expectations on June 8.
To illustrate:
But I shouldn't brag too much; given how adaptive these expectations are, guessing that they would drop sharply after the lower-than-expected inflation print was a no-brainer.

But this raises the question how reliable those expectations are in the first place. There are ways to get inflation expectations as implied by asset prices, on which I remember to have written, so I'll relink that post if I can find it.

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