Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Another broken relationship

You could see this as another addendum to my latest Hurriyet Daily News / Roubini Global Economics column:

One of the most remarkable figures of last Thursday's Q4 National Income Accounts was the huge surge in investment, which points to yet another broken relationship:
As you can see, CUR was a pretty good predictor for investment until late. Honestly, I have no f--king clue what is going on here, i.e. why firms are investing like mad... But this means more spare capacity in the future, and so is inflation-positive (for the Central Bank)...

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