Saturday, April 9, 2011

Monday's column

I just finished Monday's column. I decided to write on my outlook for government bonds. 

The motivation for the column is the recent benchmark rally after March inflation came in much lower than expected:
As you can see above, the benchmark yield has been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year despite a couple of short rallies. So the question is whether this week's rally is transitory like past ones, or whether it could lead to more downward movement of the benchmark.

I explain my outlook for the benchmark in two sections: My inflation outlook and supply & demand dynamics. I don't want to give away too much, but the former is rather bond-unfriendly, whereas the latter paints a mixed picture for bonds at best.

I will have a more detailed addendum tomorrow. Yes, another addendum before the actual column, but I refer the readers to the blog for the details of my empirical analysis (I needed to do that, as I was critical of those giving out forecasts without revealing their methodology), so I need to get all that down (and hyperlink it) before the column is published.

And of course, you'll be able to read the whole thing in just over 24 hours (my columns are published on the web at 23.55 on Sunday)...

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