Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Disappearing Linkages: The Budget

One of the biggest Turkish econ. themes of the past couple of years has been the disconnect between seemingly-related variables. 

I already talked about how VATs on imports, which used to be a good predictor of actual imports, led me (and everyone else) to an off-the-mark forecast. Another broken relationship is the one between cash and budget balance, to which Magfi Egilmez of Radikal pointed to in a recent column: The two series, which used to be more or less in sync, have become increasingly uncorrelated of late, with the latest figures being case-in-point:
The budget, which looks artificially strong, is one of the few topics I have in mind for next week's Hurriyet column. Actually, it was the strongest candidate until the CBT pulled yet another rabbit out of its hat this afternoon. But when I cover the budget, I will surely try to get to the bottom of this....


Anonymous said...

Speaking of linkages, how about the link between benchmark rate and ISE? and benchmark vs. policy rate? Do you have a picture for those? I remember you posted something about this over a year ago, but I couldn't find it.

Abe Rudder

Anonymous said...

Sorry it's me again :) I got 2 things in mind;


whats your take on that? Could you please comment briefly?

2. What happened to the expat blog? Is it on?

Abe Rudder

Emre Deliveli said...

Sorry, I wasn't able to address your first question. I'll address that tonight, and the other one tomorrow.

As for the expat blog: Writing, reading and the family business are really killing me, but I still want to get around to doing that...