One of the biggest Turkish econ. themes of the past couple of years has been the disconnect between seemingly-related variables.
I already talked about how VATs on imports, which used to be a good predictor of actual imports, led me (and everyone else) to an off-the-mark forecast. Another broken relationship is the one between cash and budget balance, to which Magfi Egilmez of Radikal pointed to in a recent column: The two series, which used to be more or less in sync, have become increasingly uncorrelated of late, with the latest figures being case-in-point:
The budget, which looks artificially strong, is one of the few topics I have in mind for next week's Hurriyet column. Actually, it was the strongest candidate until the CBT pulled yet another rabbit out of its hat this afternoon. But when I cover the budget, I will surely try to get to the bottom of this....
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3 comments:
Speaking of linkages, how about the link between benchmark rate and ISE? and benchmark vs. policy rate? Do you have a picture for those? I remember you posted something about this over a year ago, but I couldn't find it.
Abe Rudder
Sorry it's me again :) I got 2 things in mind;
1. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html?_r=1
whats your take on that? Could you please comment briefly?
2. What happened to the expat blog? Is it on?
Abe Rudder
Sorry, I wasn't able to address your first question. I'll address that tonight, and the other one tomorrow.
As for the expat blog: Writing, reading and the family business are really killing me, but I still want to get around to doing that...
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