Wednesday, March 23, 2011
One of the biggest Turkish econ. themes of the past couple of years has been the disconnect between seemingly-related variables.
I already talked about how VATs on imports, which used to be a good predictor of actual imports, led me (and everyone else) to an off-the-mark forecast. Another broken relationship is the one between cash and budget balance, to which Magfi Egilmez of Radikal pointed to in a recent column: The two series, which used to be more or less in sync, have become increasingly uncorrelated of late, with the latest figures being case-in-point:
The budget, which looks artificially strong, is one of the few topics I have in mind for next week's Hurriyet column. Actually, it was the strongest candidate until the CBT pulled yet another rabbit out of its hat this afternoon. But when I cover the budget, I will surely try to get to the bottom of this....