Thursday, March 3, 2011


February inflation is about to be released, and I am saying "pass" for a guesstimate. Here's why:
If these figures from Istanbul Chamber of Commerce's Istanbul data are any guide (they are quite often not), there are two opposing effects: On the one hand, food is likely to bring the headline figure down because of base effects. But household items jumped up. I would say it is the exchange rate, but pass-through should not be that quick- but then again- the lira has been weak since December.

And if you are wondering how the ICC headline as well as its food and household components fare with the official figures:

Household expenditures:
BTW, before I could post this, the inflation was posted: It is 0.72% mom (4.16% yoy), right in line with expectations. I have not had a chance to look at the details, but I am guessing the Turkstat houseware item did not shoot up, which is predictable, given that the ICC series is much volatile than the official one.

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