Tuesday, February 22, 2011

A small explanation (and some humor)

Reader Abe Rudder has the following comment to my addendum to last week's Hurriyet column:
WoW, first time I see you giving investment ideas, I hope you are not evolving into a "market" economist. :)

Abe Rudder
Well, I would see that as a backward evolution, so I hope not. BTW, I was a market economist for a good 16 months, so I have already made the evolutionary leap from market economist to economics columnist, and I have no intention of retorting back!:) BTW, speaking of evolution:
Yes, I am still sore from Sunday!:) Anyway, joking aside, Abe Rudder need not have worried: That was one of the few times I will be giving investment advice. For one thing, as Abe Rudder implies as well, there are many market economists/ analysts dishing out such advice, so there is definitely no need for one more. Besides, it is impossible to forecast asset prices accurately in the short-run (I am saying this both as a former market economist as well as someone who has taught a course in time series). When I was a market economist, I hated the short-term USDTRY forecasts we had to fill out every week precisely for that reason.

But in this case, I made an exception because: 1. My projection was more longer-term. 2. I had a lot of faith in it. 3. I was making it to use myself, so I wasn't just sharing wisdom from an ivory tower... But again, no worries because: 1. I love what I do. 2. I wanted to be market economist, I would practice it in the market rather than in a weekly column. 3. The editors at Daily News are, thank God, not keen on too much emphasis on asset prices; after all, as they rightly note Economics is much more than that.

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