Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Live blog from post-crisis global economic order and Turksih economy conference (I)

Deniz Ulke Aribogan (Bahcesehir President): Emphasized interdisciplinary work.

Atilla Askar (Koc President): Started out with chaos theory and the similarity of modern econ. theory to physics. It seems that the concept of equilibrium may be history. (ED: he is principally right).

Durmus Yilmaz (CBT President): I do not believe that the dismal science is dismal. Global crisis is continuing. Green shoots signals are still weak. The worst is behind us, but recovery will be slow and painful. It is necessary to have cautionary optimism for TR and world. Cautionary because there is uncertainty. One uncertainty is the breadth of fiscal and monetary measures.
Global crisis slowed down econ in TR as well. Credit tightened. To make up for financial tightening, rate cuts were put forward. the late improvement in credit conditions positive.
Our goal is price stability. For sustained recovery, we need consumer recovery.
We think Turkish recovery will be earlier and faster than global because: 1. Financial system strong. 2.households not indebted, not a lot of currency mismatch.
Access to external fin limited, global slowdown(exports) mean this time we will nevertheless recover more slowly.

Overall, nothing new from Yilmaz...
Sent by BlackBerry Internet Service from Turkcell

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