Wednesday, July 1, 2009

EconNews Roundup

Hurriyet Daily News has a good piece on the growth figures. I like the fact that they have used quite a few different sources. The title is definitely catchy, but I wouldn't term the current slump the biggest post-war one, even though it may as well be, simply because we would be comparing apple the fruit with apple the computer. The article also relates the 5.7% yoy increase in public spending to the quadrupling of the fiscal deficit, but as I have argued earlier, this is too small a number for such a large spending. I attribute the discrepancy mainly to the base effect.

It seems that the surprising gold exports of the last few months have given way to imports. As was the case before, there are two competing explanations: One, people are taking advantage of lower prices. Two, with people finally some cash in their pockets, they are investing. Or as the article notes, it could just be a seasonal thing...

Another interesting article argues that deft exporters are able to diversify geographically and into different sectors to lessen the impact of the crisis. As I have argued before, in the short-term this will matter only at the margin, as Turkey's biggest export markets are in a huge slump. BTW, while the interview is with the head of DHL, who is in a good position to spot these trends, TURKSTAT and TEA release detailed export data. Looking at exports by location in today's official May trade statistics supports the argument, but the numbers, with the exception of Near & Middle East, are way too small to make a macro difference. TEA's June preliminary exports figures are due out today, by the way. As a memo for myself, I should note that it would have been real nice if the newspaper article would have included a graph- something like this:

BTW, the graph comes from Turkey Data Monitor, which I installed yesterday. I am planning on a "first impressions" writeup sometime today. A full review will come after I learn how to use the program and more importantly spend some time with it.

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