Friday, October 31, 2008

Reads of the day

Nice summary from Jeff Frankel of the recent recession indicators. suggests using prices and quantities to measure health of the labor market rather than depend on unemployment. Noting that all the problems with the unemployment rate he is mentioning are exacerbated in Turkey, I'd have to say I'd agree with him. BETAM of Bahcesehir University have done some work on linking unemployment data to growth; I bet they would have been much more successful with a better labor market indicator.

Decoupling of a difficult kind- between the sovereign CDSs. Incidentally, if I didn't mess up my calculations, Italy's probability of default comes out to be 9-10%. Felix Salmon reports that we can see a similar story going on between Russia and Brazil.

David Altig of the Atlanta Fed has a couple of posts on the Fed's recently-established facilities. Part 1 looks at the commercial paper funding facility, whereas part 2 discusses the facilities targeted at money market funds.

Ft Alphaville summarizes a recent BoA reserach note that explains what the effective Fed funds rate has to do with money market funds breaking the buck.

James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser summarize the latest GDP figures.

One positive aspect of the GDP figures is that we now have all the data to for the Fair model, which I had covered before. Plug the numbers in, and we have a narrow Obama victory.

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