Monday, October 20, 2008

More on Turkish FX liquidity

While I was trying to come up with some novel Turkish banking data for the Financial Econometrics class I am teaching this semester, a friend of mine in retail banking called up to ask where she could find data on syndicated lending to Turkish banks. I thought I could use the data for my class, so I took it to heart to helping my friend. Conversations with a couple of friends who analyze banks revealed that that data is not easily available, but I was halfway in my data-gathering efforts when I saw Erdal Saglam writing in Turkish business daily Referans on the same subject.

Normally, I am as naive as they come, but Erdal Saglam, whose interconnectivity is more than a CDS, and my banker friend on the same topic managed to raise even my eyebrows. So, a call to my friend and a couple of banking analysts confirmed what I suspected: Syndicated and securitized lending is likely to dry up for the rest of the year and in 2009. This, combined with the already hefty payments of banks in 2008 and 2009, means that banks are likely to continue to scramble for liquidity. In fact, I had mentioned in an earlier post that FX liquidity is getting tight in Turkish markets, and the fight for liquidity may have already begun: FX deposit rates have gone up to 7% from 5% in a matter of days.

As much as Erdal Saglam's article is right on target, it turns out that his numbers are not correct. Below are the actual numbers, courtesy of my retail banker friend, which I also confirmed with a couple of banking analysts.

Bank year-month Type Size Currency
Garanti 8-Nov Syndication 700 US$
TEB 8-Nov Syndication 240 EUR
Finansbank 8-Nov Syndication 479 US$
Finansbank 8-Nov Syndication 425 US$
Akbank 8-Dec Syndication 400 US$
Akbank 8-Dec Syndication 550 US$
YKB 8-Dec Syndication 700 US$
Vakifbank 8-Dec Syndication 200 US$
Vakifbank 8-Dec Syndication 375 US$
Alternatifbank 8-Dec Syndication 113 US$
Akbank 9-Jan Syndication 100 US$
Isbank 9-Apr Syndication 900 US$
Garanti 9-May Syndication 600 EUR
Akbank 9-Jun Syndication 500 EUR
Garanti 9-Jul Securitization 175 US$
Sekerbank 9-Jul Syndication 250 US$
Vakifbank 9-Jul Syndication 750 US$
Akbank 9-Aug Syndication 1000 US$
Tekstilbank 9-Aug Syndication 132 US$
YKB 9-Sep Syndication 1000 EUR
Isbank 9-Sep Syndication 485 US$
Isbank 9-Sep Syndication 236 EUR
Vakifbank 9-Dec Syndication 175 US$
Isbank 10-May Securitization 700 US$
Tekstilbank 10-Aug Syndication 25 US$
Tekstilbank 10-Aug Securitization 87.5 EUR
Garanti 11-May Securitization 300 EUR
Isbank 11-Jun Securitization 250 US$
Isbank 11-Nov Securitization 600 US$
Akbank 12-Jun Securitization 550 US$

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