Thursday, December 11, 2008

Interesting Picks

Chart of the day: Volatility and the carry trade

Felix Salmon and Charles Davi defend credit default swaps: It is information and liquidity, they say.

NY Fed's one-pager Forms of Fed lending has finally been updated, but I don't think the next update will fit to one page.

Michael Dueker, through Econbrowser, tries to determine the recession's trough date using a VAR that incorporates qualitative and discrete variables. He is forecasting see a July or August 2009 trough and a jobless recovery until March 2010. Assuming a 6-month transmission to Turkey (courtesy of the IMF), don't get your hopes up for positive growth in Turkey next year.

Rebecca Wilder revisits Fed's interest on reserves.

The father of sudden stops warns against the infamous son.

Interesting concept via The Big Picture: The Shadow Gold Price. But I suspect that if you look at historical linkages, many things look very cheap nowadays, including bananas, as one commentator has noted.

Tobins's Q hints equities have not reached bottom.

I learned about the condition of trade finance as a credit crisis indicator from a friend in the shipping industry a few weeks back. FRB Atlanta does a great job in explaining the difficulty in getting letters of credit and how it is impacting the Baltic dry index.

Scary Movie 2009: Produced by Fortune films

Zubin Jelveh notes of a short Cleveland Fed article that evaluates Japan's quantitative easing.

Mark Tahoma summarizes the recent blogs on the infrastructure multiplier.

David Bekworth does a great job in explaining why Fed is thinking about issuing its own debt- quick resterilization. Yet another reason to watch Treasuries.

No comments: