Thursday, May 7, 2009

Yet another grim tale

The EBRD just released its growth forecasts, following in the footsteps of other international agencies with a grim perspective. I was planning to go over some numbers when the IMF figures came out, but never got to it, so since the figures are almost identical, here's the regional summary for Emerging Europe:
  • Turkey is to contract by 5.5% in 2009, which compares with the government’s own 3.6% contraction forecast, with mine of 5%, and the IMF’s 5.1%.
  • Russia is expected to contract by 7.5%, down from the EBRD’s 1% growth forecast in January. However, I think that rallying oil&metal prices might change this picture. I am really curious how anyone is expecting a good tourism season in Turkey over the summer with Russia in this state. It is true that there aren't as many cancelled reservations for now, but most of these don't have a deposit involved and can be cancelled at the last minute.
  • Ukraine is expected to contact 10%, with Baltic states in the same range.
  • Only Central Europe is expected to do better than Turkey growthwise this year, with the Czechs at -3.5% and the Poles at zilch growth.
  • Overall, the EBRD has cuts its 2009 growth forecast for Emerging Europe from 0.1% in January to minus 5.2%.
As is clear from the numbers, Turkey looks quite a decent performer even with its 5%-5.5% contraction. Another case where relativity seems to hold...

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