Friday, May 1, 2009

EconNews Roundup

Preliminary exports data is showing that the downward slide of exports continues. Speaking of trade statistics, the most interesting aspect of yesterday's official release of March figures was the larger-than-expected imports: Obviously, the tax cuts have helped, but the increase is way too much and way too across-the-board to be explained by that alone.

Hurriyet has a roundup of the best month for stocks since 2003. Of course As for whether the really will continue or not, it breaks my heart to see the most talented mathematician of the Middle Ages be degraded like that. Obviously, like many economists, I do not hold technical analysis in much esteem, but just enough to know that it is a self-fulfilling strategy- if everyone believes and acts according to it, it will materialize. But then again, any strategy would work that way. I mean, you could be buying in Besiktas victories, and the market would still have been bullish for the past few months.

Joking aside, just think about global developments of the last few days: Risk of another epidemic, widely blown green shoots scenario, a stock market totally pumped up by the Fed and at best a very wide V of a recession. Now turn to Turkey and you have uncertainties on the IMF front being manipulated by a couple of smart asses taking "appropriate positions" (yes, I am talking about Wednesday's rally), a deep slowdown and a government still slow to act. I would definitely agree that Turkish stock are very cheap in the very long run, but as for the next month or so, I would not be as cocky, despite what Fibonacci (or the Besiktas for that matter) analysis tells you.

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