Thursday, May 14, 2009

EconNews Roundup

I was on the road yesterday, so here is the roundup of Wednesday & Thursday:

Swine flu could increase tourist flows to Turkey (HT to David Lloyd): I guess the argument is theoretically possible, but then the problem with Economics is that almost anything is theoretically possible, if you make the "right" assumptions. I had discussed the two sides briefly earlier, so no need to be repetitive, but as a more general point, I think there is great confusion in the Turkish press, and even some economic columnists on the relative powers of income versus substitution effects. There is a column I have been planning to write for some time, which I will call "some common misconceptions about the Turkish economy". This has to be in that article.

See what happens when you make people unemployable and reduce incentives for work for year with one of the weirdest social security systems ever to grace the galaxy.

I am contining to delay my take on Turkish fiscal affairs, which will probably be part (or whole) of coming week's Hurriyet column. So here's an appetizer until then.

Mixed signs from the Eurozone continue: Just how sweet were the OECD leading indicators a couple of days before.

The hard copy of Hurriyet (no web link) was reporting Deuthsche as the new recruit to the "don't send the doc away" camp. And according to the paper's summary of the bank's Turkey chief economist's report, which I somehow missed, "the narrowing of the current account and higher borrowing by the Treasury shouldn't weaken the case for an IMF loan"- more or less what I was saying at my latest column. He further adds that "there seems to be some confusion regarding the role of an IMF program and growing complacency regarding the need and size of funding." I have never met the chap, but glad to know there is still some common sense in the market.

Last but definitely not the least, a new comic drama from Fenerbahce SK: The "Cupless" Years, shot in Izmir with an international cast of 18 (and extras of 40,000) directed by Luis Aragones, produced by Aziz Yildirim- I am sorry I can not refer to the duo by their stage names, but this is a strictly PC blog (boos to Hurriyet for not covering this and forcing me to link to the competition).

1 comment:

David Lloyd said...

Hi Emre,

Following on from your 'right' assumptions article !

A physicist, a chemist and an economist are shipwrecked on a desert isle, along with a container full of cans of baked beans.

The chemist says that if they can start a fire, he can calculate the temperature at which a can will explode.

The physicist says that she can work out the trajectory of the baked beans after the explosion, so that they can gather the baked beans and eat them.

The economist looks at them in disdain, and finally says Guys, you’re going about it the hard way. Let’s assume we have a can opener!