Wednesday, January 28, 2009

TURKSTAT is following the latest trends

Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK/TURKSTAT) revised its CPI basket. By taking off film development fees and VCD rental fees, TURKSTAT has proven once again that it is following the latest trends in technology and consumer attitudes. But I am not sure what to make of their taking off velvet as well as lady coats and child jackets. BTW, dry apricots, a favorite snack of mine, are in...

Here are the old and new weights of the 12 main categories:

2008 2009
Food, Beverages 28,63 28,03
Tobacco & Liquor 5,00 4,58
Clothing and Shoes 8,07 7,22
Housing 16,6 18,63
Houseware 7,42 7,53
Health 2,54 2,5
Transportation 12,59 12,64
Communication 12,59 12,64
Entertainment and Culture 2,81 2,54
Education 2,24 2,47
Restaurant, Cafe and Hotels 5,64 5,47
Miscellaneous 4,16 3,79

Out of curiosity, I asked a couple of market economist friends how much the new weights changed their January inflation forecasts: Both said their forecast went up, one by 1bp and the other by 2bp. Not a big difference in absolute terms, but quite significant in percentage terms (I won't give their numbers not to reveal their identity, but to give you some perspective, the mean of the CNBC survey of inflation expectations is 0.13%).

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