Saturday, November 8, 2008

Interesting Picks

I am changing the title of my regular links entry to Interesting Picks from Reads of the Day, mainly to reflect the facts that my picks do not always come from the same day and that I jot in that entry almost every day, but not every day...

The week in pictures from Econompicdata.

James Hamilton goes over the latest payrolls report. According to Krugman, the latest data puts the US into a straight course for ZIRP.

The two-trillion balance sheet.

Yves Smith has more on the DTCC CDS data. FT Alphaville summarizes the issues.

Former Argentina:) Central Bank governor argues that the IMF should guarantee EM debt. Joking aside, this isn't as crazy it sounds, as he also offers some solutions to some of the problems inherent in such a proposal, which would, if nothing else, create a level playing field for EM.

Interactive table on US bank bailouts.

Is the Ted spread a good leading or lagging/concurrent indicator of the US stock market? Never mind that none of these is a formal test, it's just fun to read.

David Beckworth has one more labor statistic to add to James Hamilton's comprehensive list of recession indicators. BTW, he has a simple recession prediction model.

History teaches us that looking at the money multiplier as sign of credit easing might be a good idea in times of stress.

Chart of the week: US same store sales for October. Note the negative correlation between the quality of the chain (low-cost, upperscale) and change in sales. Although I have not seen a similar data for restaurant chains, I recently read that McDonalds's is doing OK. So is the US consumer frugalizing?

Prediction markets for the new Treasury secretary.

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