Friday, December 10, 2010

Quick Take on Q3 Turkish Growth

I am in Mugla, with nothing but my Bberry with me, so while I could not look at the data in detail, here's my first take @ the Q3 GDp release of an hour ago:

It seems the cold wave hit 3Q growth figures before Istanbul.

3Q growth, at 5.5 percent yoy, came in lower than expected (6.6 percent).

In line with my recent writings (and earlier data) construction turned out to be strong.

Looking from the expenditures side, it is a very typical breakdown. Very strong positive contributions from consumption and investment (private and public), as well as a strong negative contribution from net exports.

But I still think given there is still seasonal qoq growth, this is a rather good reading.

Leading indicators are telling me the GDP will grow (s.a. qoq) in the fourth quarter as well- I project 2010 growth to be just below 8 percent.

I will be writing about today's release as well as Wednesday's Industrial Production and othe leading indicators in Monday's HDNER column...
Sent by BlackBerry Internet Service from Turkcell

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