Thursday, December 30, 2010

Another riddle

I think the most interesting thing about today's trade figures is the lower than expected export turnout. I was not surprised at all, as I was expecting exactly 9.4 billion liras. That's because the preliminary export figures, released by Turkish Exporters Association on the first day of the following month, are usually a very good predictor of the official figures released during the last day of the following month. You probably know by now; I believe that a picture is worth more than a thousand words:

But this brought to my mind the couple of episodes on the graph where the relationship has broken down. I am wondering why....

Unlike the previous riddle, I really have no idea this time around, so I won't be posting any answer, unless I have a sudden Eureka episode... But note that other deviations from the relationship tend to group together, and there is another grouping like the current one... And the two groups entail figures from late 2008, early 2009, around and right after the Lehman crash.... Now, I am getting curious:)....

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