Monday, June 29, 2009

My New Forecasts

Speaking of forecasts, I have been updating my own forecasts thanks to my friends at Turkey Data Monitor, who were kind enough to share their data Excel sheet with me. Interestingly, I came up with the devil theme, with all the key forecasts having the infamous three sixes:

It all started when I was doing some fiscal projections at the end of last month. I came with a deficit figure of TRY 65-70bn, so why not write the official projection at TRY 66.6bn? Recently, I have been looking at growth and inflation: For growth, my 5% contraction from early in the year now look a tad bit too optimistic. I now see growth contracting at 5.5-6%, but with just a bit of darker assumptions on oil prices and the world economy, my VAR, one of the frameworks I am using, easily spits out -6.66%. As for inflation, my earlier projection of 7% seems a tiny bit too high. I have now come with a figure of around 6.5%, so I can jot down 6.66% for that.

This makes life very easy for me. Now, when someone asks about my Turkish economy projections, I just refer them to the fallen angel. This also makes things comforting, as we seem to have just the right government to combat with such devilish figures:)....

BTW, feel free to email me if you want to know the methodologies and the details.

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