I already explained in the article my inspiration for the title, so I can just right into more serious matters, i.e. my usual addendum:
First, as I promised when I posted the column to Facebook, let me briefly explain how I calculate potential output: I use a variety of non-Bayesian approaches, which are more less summarized in a recent IMF paper for Armenia. Of the methods outlined there, my favorite are the multivariate Kalman filter and production function, but the simplest is HP, which I provide below, courtesy of my friends at Turkey Data Monitor:
Coming to policy response robust to consumer loans (the last paragraph of the column), although the CBT is sure to increase the reserve requirement further eventually, it was the government that struck first by raising the charge on consumer loans. Although the Resource Utilization Support Fund will be paid by the consumer, in practice, just like any tax hike, it will be absorbed by both the consumer and the producer (bank). I believe it will eat into bank profits as well because of competition in the banking sector.
Needless to say, I am surprised that I have been correctly guessing (well, sort of) government policy in advance for two consecutive weeks now, and my ego is sure to be inflated further as a result.
Now that I am done with the addenda, on to the column: