Sunday, November 28, 2010

A really belated response to a reader

A reader who goes by the name Tarik has apparently asked the following question to my article on the Central Bank of Turkey nearly two months ago:
You proposed fiscal policies against capital inflows.What fiscal measures can be taken against capital inflows? Many economists started getting worried about hot money(Faik ozatay e.t.c). Another thing,What do you think of the employment figures?there was a significant drop in unemployment figures. hasan ersel wrote about it in a statistical view. faik ozatay points out that there was a sharp increase in employment in agricultural sector.I think that he finds it a little bit puzzling. Thanks
As I explained in a rather belated response, Daily News does not automatically update authors on reader comments, so I have no way of knowing of new comments unless I look at the article. While I check for comments the next few days after I publish an article, I do not usually return to an article after that. I accidentally saw Tarik's question when I was rereading that piece to, believe it or not, see what I had written:) Am getting senile or not?:)

Anyway, I plan to write on unemployment soon, and so will address that question in a separate Daily News column, but let me take on the fiscal question: I have in mind tighter fiscal policy, especially on the expenditures side. Why? IMHO, the best way to fight capital flows would be to attain fast and sustainable disinflation to reduce nominal interest rates and eliminate the interest rate differential (to some degree, at least) with developed countries. And the key is that you'd need to do this fast; otherwise, hot money will continue flowing in. The best way of attaining that would be via fiscal policy...

My apologies for Tarik for the very late response, but as they say, better late than never, right:)....

6 comments:

kursat said...

I have a question for Tarik. why are people getting worried about hot money? Sorry I did not read recent articles about that.. the risk of outflow?
I thought the concern was to keep the money inside, keeping them as long as possible, no??

Emre Deliveli said...

I don't know about Tarik, but I am concerned because of the appreciated lira in the short run and a sudden stop/reversal in the medium-run....

Actually, I am not as worried as most on the exchange rate because lira, in real terms, has not been faring that badly against other EMs, which are Turkey's main competitors for exports...But again, the best remedy is lower inflation as well. Think about the real exchange rate equation(q=ep*/p: The lira is valued against the dollar or euro in real terms mainly because of the inflation differential, not because of nominal exchange rates...

David Rogovic said...

Hi Emre,

Do you think that tightening fiscal policy could actually attract more capital flows into Turkey? For example, if Turkey tightens fiscal policy next year (or maintains decent fiscal balances) that could prompt a ratings upgrade which would make Turkey even more attractive in the eyes of investors. In this scenario, tighter fiscal policy could actually spur even more 'hot money' inflows.

Emre Deliveli said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Emre Deliveli said...

Kursat (and Tarik):

This is a good paper on when to worry (or not worry) about capital inflows and the ensuing real exchange rate appreciation:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=24395.0

David: I will be addressing your question in a separate post later today.

Emre Deliveli said...

David;

I answered your question as a separate post:

http://emredeliveli.blogspot.com/2010/12/reader-commentquestion-on-capital-flows.html

But feel free to follow up if need be...

Best,

Emre