I've been curious for a long time about how the votes of undecideds are distributed. I know most of the cases it's distributed according to relative frequencies which I don't find quite right since I am suspicious about randomness of the respondents of the survey. I just wonder whether KONDA has any statistical tool/model on that or they just religiously believe the respondents are random.
I personally believe if they are using relative frequencies to distribute, this will have a downward pressure on YES causing YES voters to be seem less than its actual value given my religiously belief of the data is nonrandom.
It is reasonable to conjecture that the undecideds will be distributed along a bell curve on Sunday, meaning that apportioning them (as is the current custom in the industry) pro-rata to YES and NO votes would not bias the results. There are two caveats. The first is an event that would significantly change the perception of the undecided voters. In our past comments on the referendum, we cited several such events. Of these, the most noteworthy is the backpedaling by the PKK-BDP-Ocalan Axis, which switched from impartiality to boycott. We assume that in large Kurdish cities poll security will be provided adequately, allowing the voter to express her preference freely in the ballot box. But, in rural areas and townships, the PKK/BDP pressure could work to the advantage of rejection. We make this conjecture, because poll data suggest that no-shows would have likely voted to ratify.
The second caveat is the observation, made by very reliable pollsters that the polarization of the nation and the mutual threats of retribution from the respective camps, coming on top of the growing fear of being wiretapped, have made many voters very conscious about expressing their views freely. These voters may be represented more than proportionally among the “undecideds” classification. We can’t estimate the magnitude of this effect, but would speculate that it works in favor of NO votes.