Friday, September 10, 2010

An addendum to an addendum...

... and so soon- this is an addendum to my most recent post on the referendum.

Right after I submitted my post for to Roubini Global Economics, RGE economist Mary Stokes wrote back to me with the following interesting observation:
Very interesting how Konda expects a relatively high margin of victory for the ‘yes’ vote. I guess this will be a defining moment for whichever polling firm comes closest to getting it right. Now we just need to wait for Sunday.
, to which I responded:
History can't be any guide, as KONDA was right on target at the 2007 general elections, but was completely off the mark at the 2009 local elections. I can personally vouch that they do a lot of things right (proper random sampling, face-face-face interviews, checks to make sure interviewers do not fill out the forms themselves), but still you never know....
I really think KONDA is being very tedious with their interviews, and their sampling allows for a maximum error of 2.5-3%, but it is still the undecideds who will decide this referendum. BTW, with two polling opportunities in less than a year (the general election is scheduled for July, 2011), we might finally have a clear winner from the war of the polling firms.
Speaking of quotes, the award for best quote goes to a loyal reader (I am not disclosing her name, as I don't have her permission), who explains her belief of a narrow "yes" victory:
the music playing from the AKP election van is better and you know that saying 'the Devil has the best music
Hmmm, I am not sure the AKP would love to be called the devil...

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