This post already appeared in Hurriyet Daily News this week; Roubini Global Economics Emerging Markets EconoMonitor is just republishing it, but I just wanted to cross-link for the readers who might have missed it the first time around...
There is also an addendum in the blog, where I roughly sketch my methodology for the forecasts. As you'll figure out, it is basically augmented financial programming- forecast the basic variables and make sure everything else fits in.
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