Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Cyclicality or Circularity?

I have been seeing two really weird arguments in Economics circles recently.

First, it is being argued that Turkey's dismal growth performance is cyclical. To counter, I am offering the following graph:

As you can see, the fall in these indicators (and others) starts as early as summer, 2008. Moreover, I am not sure how you'd explain such dismal growth performance from a country that was supposed to, in theory, be most shielded from the global crisis, as Cevdet Akcay explains, if you would not resort to structural problems and policy mismanagement?

Even more weird is the argument is that the fiscal deterioration is cyclical. Again, a picture is worth more than a thousand words:

You decide....

I am not sure if the owners of these arguments are hoping for a ministerial seat (one is not a Turkish citizen, so he definitely isn't), but the worst part of all this is that such encouraging talk might be tempting the government to complacency, leading to an infinite spiral of circularity.

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