Tuesday, September 22, 2009

More on Turkish 2Q GDP

One of the most interesting recent developments in Turkish GDP data has been the growing disconnect between industrial production and GDP (and GDP's industry component):

Given Turkey's past blunders with data (BTW, having spent time at TURKSTAT, I stand firm behind my lines over six months ago that the institute is really dismal), the media was like sharks smelling blood, adorning their Economics pages with headlines accusing TURKSTAT os mismeasurement and claiming a sharp revision was on the way.

What made the whole scene tragic in a comic way was an IMF report welcoming improvement in the quality of Turkey's reporting of macro data, which came out around the time of the release of the 2Q GDP data.

The truth, however, may be much less exciting: It might as well be that at least part of the discrepancy is explained by firms cutting down on their usage of intermediate inputs, at least relatively more than industrial production:

I would never, even in my wildest dreams, think of myself defending TURKSTAT. But here I am...

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